2024 PGA Championship odds: Bookmaker talks Scotty Scheffler, McIlroy, Tiger

We are one sleep away from 2024 PGA Championship The biggest question at Louisville's Valhalla Golf Club and perhaps in golf circles surrounds the most influential player in the world, Scotty Scheffler.

How will he act as a new father?

The 27-year-old Scheffler just won his second Masters title, and he has won four of his last five PGA outings. He also finished second in the event did not Win that stretch, but maybe a few weeks off and a brush with fatherhood is enough to slow his burn.

I tried my best to type the last line without laughing, but seriously where are we in the betting community. Bettors and bookmakers are having an inside conversation about why a new baby would slow down Scotty Scheffler.

Yet a Scheffler victory is mathematically the least-surprising result.

“Really, the impact on the child has to be considered,” Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk management at Westgate SuperBook, told Fox Sports. “He'll be without his caddy on Saturday as well, so that could break the rhythm as well. There are some things that can set Scotty Scheffler back.

“We're floating him at 9-2 (+450) in the SuperBook, which is way more than he's worth at The Masters. I feel good about that number. If we go 5-1, we might get a lot of support, but we're currently At 9-2 are in a good position and we are not writing anything overwhelming.

“I can sell it at that price.”

Meanwhile, Rory McIlroy is the most popular golfer at Sherman's shop after the Irishman's impressive five-shot win at Quail Hollow last weekend. His price has basically been cut in half in the last 10 days, which is more common than you might think as golf bettors fall quickly for recent results.

If you bet McIlroy today, you're literally getting the worst number.

“Rory hasn't won a major in 10 years, but that's the last time he won at this course,” Sherman said. “This narrative is being talked about a lot.

“You can still find Rory at 14 or 15-1 a week and a half ago. When he won on Sunday, I got him down to 8-1. That didn't stop the hunger because I wrote a $5,500 bet on him. Two days ago 8 At -1 we are now down to +750.

“I know Scotty has won four of his last five events, including The Masters, but the freshest thing on people's minds is Scotty not playing on the weekend and Rory winning by a margin. That can't be underestimated.”

Another ever popular golfer in tentpole events is Brooks Koepka.

Although he has only appeared on the PGA circuit a handful of times, there is no doubting his ability to compete in majors and play well on long and narrow courses. So will Valhalla in short.

Winning three of the last six PGA Championships also helps.

“Whatever Koepka gets at these big events,” Sherman explained. “Betters don't seem to care about his form or odds. The price is falsely low based on the expected support. We didn't want to go to 20-1 or more because we wanted to avoid getting caught.”

Speaking of getting stuck, most sportsbooks around America will be rooting for Tiger Woods not to be the last man standing after four rounds.

When the SuperBook opened the PGA Championship market nearly five months ago, Woods was offered at 100-1 to pull off the unthinkable. If you think that number is high, try running the current price of 300-1 for size.

“We took a $1,000 bet at 100-1 in February,” Sherman reported. “There wasn't a lot of action after that, so I pushed him to 300. There's liability, but not as much as we've seen at The Masters or previous PGA Championships.

“We don't really need Tiger to win, but I'm not too nervous.”

Anyone else roar home with a win?

“Right now, our biggest liabilities are Rory, Ludwig Aberg and Justin Thomas,” Sherman reported. “Akshay Bhatia is another one. He is now a public darling and gets pretty decent support every week. We took Bhatia at 125-1 and brought it down to 100-1.

“Tiger is clearly a liability even with the big odds. For anyone who has followed Tiger on tour since his early days, it's hard to see him these days. We've seen the pattern, especially during his last two trips to Augusta.

“He cuts, but can't put Saturdays and Sundays together. His body can't handle four days of grinding and walking. It seems like it's too much for him at the moment.”

Say what you will about Tiger, the man is still a financial magnet. And while people aren't exactly salivating to bet him in the outright market, he remains fair game in head-to-head matchups and makes/misses cut offers.

Polarization works wonders behind the counter.

“One of our best matchups is Tiger against Phil (Mickelson),” Sherman said. “Mickelson isn't doing that well at LIV, so the price remains competitive. If Phil's current form is strong, we could be (-200) or higher.

“They're both polarizing golfers — people want to bet for or against them.”

At the end of the day, Scheffler will dominate the conversation for the next four days, win or lose. I wouldn't bet him at +450 or under to win the PGA Championship, but it's foolish to expect him to sink into the abyss due to paternity.

Earlier this year, I spoke with golf handicapper Jeff Seeley before The Masters and he talked about wheeling through the Scheffler Top-10 with something that wasn't nailed down. That was A+ advice because he won the whole damn thing.

If you look at other Scheffler top-10 bets, it's -200 at most American stores, while at Superbook -250 is decidedly higher. Some books allow you to parlay futures, and you can bet the Scheffler Top-10 on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at around 9-1.

“I'm only at -250 in that market because every time we put it, we get a Scheffler top-10 buck,” Sherman explained. “I have to slow it down, so I open higher.

“There are golfers on tour whose top-10 and top-20 prices should be directly inconsistent with the numbers. It's not like we pop prices directly and follow what the formula puts out.

“Take Xander Schauffele for example. He just doesn't win. You have to go back to July 2022 for his last win. But he finishes top-5, 10, 20 almost every week. If you price him similarly in that market. Like other golfers in the 14-1 range, I think this is inefficient.

“Koepka is 16-1, and he can certainly win, but Zander needs to be short in the top-5, top-10 and top-20 markets if that makes sense. We attack those markets differently to avoid any inefficiencies.”

I wholeheartedly agree with Sherman Ray: Koepka. His range of results is pretty big, and it really wouldn't surprise me if he wins another PGA title or misses the cut. Volatility provides a ton of opportunities.

From what I'm betting, I think Koepka is more likely to get closer to Valhalla, and he's right there in the hunt to get to the final round on Sunday.

Mark me for Koepka at 16-1.

Sam Panjotovic A sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSIN. He will probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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