A win or draw for Serbia will give Ukraine a guaranteed place in the playoffs

The last 10th round of the group round begins Euro 2024 qualification. Analysts have updated the teams’ chances of reaching the final round (all data is as of the morning of November 19).

All the highlights of the match are available in Live mode in Telegram

Already known 16 out of 24 participants final round: Germany (host), Belgium, France, Portugal, Spain, Scotland, Turkey, Austria, England, Hungary, Slovakia, Albania, Denmark, Netherlands, Romania, Switzerland.

The struggle continues in 5 more groups for a ticket to Euro 2024:

Group C: Ukraine (37%) – Italy (63%)
Group D: Croatia (95%) in absentia with Wales (5%)
Group E: Czech Republic (97%) – Moldova (3%)
Group G: Serbia (99%) in absentia with Montenegro (1%)
Group H: Slovenia (90%) – Kazakhstan (10%)

What are Ukraine’s chances?

The Ukrainian national team to reach the final round we need a victory in the match of the last 10th round with the Italian team (November 20 in Leverkusen). In case of a tie, Italy will receive a ticket due to the best additional criteria (based on the results of head-to-head matches).

Chances of Rebrov’s team for second place in the group make up 37%. Analysts give 65% probabilitythat the blue-yellow team will go to Germany, taking into account the chance in the qualifying playoffs.

In case of failure in the match with the Italians, the Ukrainian national team will most likely play in the qualifying playoffs in March 2024, where Sergei Rebrov’s team with a high probability (99%) will qualify according to the Nations League rankings.

A win or draw for Serbia will give Ukraine a guaranteed place in the playoffs

If Serbia advances directly to the final round, the national team Ukraine will receive a reserve chance in case of failure to complete the task in the game with Italy.

Serbia It is enough to draw at home with Bulgaria to qualify for Euro 2024 (99% probability).

Montenegro you need to count on your away victory over Hungary plus Serbia’s defeat from Bulgaria (total probability 1%).

​Probabilities of qualification for Euro 2024 and distribution by baskets

Tournament tables and chances of reaching the final round directly

The most likely play-off scenarios for Euro 2024 qualification

Ukraine’s opponents in the playoff semi-finals could be Israel, Bosnia or Wales.

Most likely seeding of teams for the final round draw

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2023-11-19 20:20:00

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