The group round will end soon Euro 2024 qualification. The current calendar window for national team matches includes the matches of the last – 9th and 10th rounds.
Football Rankings and Fmeetsdata specialists studied the tournament layouts and named the probabilities for each team to pass at the current moment (morning of November 17).
Already known 11 out of 24 participants final round: Germany (host), Belgium, France, Portugal, Spain, Scotland, Turkey, Austria, England, Hungary, Slovakia.
Very close to solving the problem yet 7 teams: The Netherlands (99%), Albania (99%), Serbia (99%), Denmark (99%), Switzerland (97%), Czech Republic (93%), Slovenia (92%).
In three groups the fate of one of the vouchers is still in question:
Group C: Italy (59%) and Ukraine (41%)
Group D: Croatia (59%) and Wales (41%)
Group I: Romania (69%) and Israel (33%)
Three more tickets will be played in March 2024 in the playoffs, which will include the best 12 teams of the 2022/23 Nations League that have not yet qualified for Euro 2024.
Analysts give 67% probability (two thirds) that the team is a national team Ukraine will travel to Germany for the final round of the 2024 European Championship.
At the same time, the probability of Sergei Rebrov’s team getting into the 3rd seeding basket is 41%, and into the 4th basket – 59%.
According to experts, if the Ukrainian team reaches the final round, then most likely it will do so through the playoffs (59%), less likely – directly (41%).
Team Ukraine can fulfill the task of reaching the final round on November 20 in Leverkusen if he achieves the required result in the match with the Italian team.
If Italy beats North Macedonia on the evening of November 17, then the blue-yellows will only need a victory over the team from the Apennine Peninsula (if there is a draw, the head-to-head matches will be in favor of the Italians). If Squadra Azzurra loses points in the game with the Macedonians, then Ukraine will be satisfied with a draw with the Italians in the last round.
Euro 2024 qualification. Group C standings
🔹 November 17th. Rome. Italy – North Macedonia 🔹 November 20. Leverkusen. Ukraine – Italy
Probabilities of qualifying for Euro 2024 and distribution by baskets
Tournament tables and chances of reaching the final round directly
The most likely play-off scenarios for Euro 2024 qualification
Most likely seeding of teams for the final round draw
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